Archive for August, 2009

Hurricane Jimena – Dangerous situation for Baja Peninsula including Cabo San Lucas

Hurricane Jimena remains a major Category Four hurricane with maximum sustain winds of 145 mph. As of 5:00 a.m. EDT a hurricane watch was in effect for the southern parts of the Baja California Peninsula (Mexico), including Cabo San Lucas. The National Hurricane Center expects Jimena to approach southern Baja on Tuesday.

We urge all residents in this area to begin immediate hurricane preparations as Jimena has the potential to cause significant damage and loss of life. According to the Associated Press, 10,000 families will be evacuated from potential flood zones and 60 shelters were being set up by Mexican officials.

Tourists should consider immediately evacuating Cabo San Lucas or canceling plans to travel there.

A Category Four hurricane on the Saffir Simpson Scale is a storm with maximum sustained winds between 131 – 155 mph. One should expect complete destruction of mobile homes and roof collapses on residences. Damage is extensive to windows, doors and roofing materials. An example of a recent Category four hurricane is Hurricane Charley which caused more than $18 billion in damages in 2004. Please visit the preparedness section of our site for more information on the Saffir Simpson Scale.

In the Atlantic, 94I appears to have strengthened slightly overnight. The NCH is still giving this system a greater than 50% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within 48 hours. There is a great degree of uncertainty around this system and many forecast models continue to develop this storm into a hurricane over the next several days.

Hurricane Jimena gaining strength in the Pacific – 94I system developing in Atlantic

Hurricane Jimena has grown in the Pacific Ocean off the Mexican coast and is now a major hurricane on the Saffir Simpson scale with 115 mph winds. As of 5:00 a.m. EDT the National Hurricane Center is forecasting that Jimena will continue to gain strength growing to a powerful category four storm with maximum sustained winds of 145 mph. People on the western coast of Mexico and the Baja Peninsula should keep a close watch on Jimena. In addition, it should also be noted that some of the forecast models are predicting that Jimena could take a northeast track and the system may have an impact on west Texas (although not as a hurricane because it would weaken as it crosses over land).

In the Atlantic, the system identified as 94I has redeveloped overnight, and as of 8:00 a.m. EDT the NHC is giving this system a high chance (greater than 50%) of becoming a tropical cyclone within 48 hours. Should this system develop into a hurricane, it would be called Hurricane Erika. There is great uncertainty in the forecast models as to the future strength and speed of this system, and several models have this developing into a hurricane over the next several days. The system is more than 1,200 miles to San Juan and 2,300 miles to Miami and a lot of things could happen to this system over the next several days.

Tropical Storm Danny is dead

As of 5:00 a.m. EDT this morning Tropical Storm Danny had been absorbed by another system off of North Carolina and has been downgraded to a depression. An Air Force reconnaissance plane did not find any significant cyclonic wind and all watches and advisories have been terminated.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Jimena formed in the Pacific several hundred miles off the Mexican coast. It poses no threat to the United States.

Tropical Storm Danny At Risk of Absorption

As of the 2:00am EDT advisory issued by NOAA, Tropical Storm Danny is starting to wane. A low pressure system over the Carolinas is likely the cause of the slowing of the storm. While a Tropical Storm Watch continues to be in place for parts of North Carolina, NOAA is now predicting that the watches will be lifted early this morning. Despite all of this, there is still the potential for large swells and rip currents along the coast, so people are still advised to exercise caution in those areas.

Tropical Storm Danny remains a weak system

At 8:00 p.m. EDT Tropical Storm Danny was still a weak tropical storm with maximum sustained winds at 40 mph. NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft have found only minimal winds on the west side of Danny, which means that the threat to North Carolina’s Outer Banks is diminished. The National Hurricane Center has kept the Tropical Storm Watch in place in case Danny’s wind field becomes better defined this evening. Danny is expected to past approximately 60 miles east of the N.C. Outer Banks tonight.

According to the NHC, it is more likely that an expanding wind field would impact New England later this weekend with gale force winds and there is a potential for gale warnings to be issued tomorrow.

Hurricane hunters find Danny is still a weak tropical storm moving north

Hurricane hunter aircraft sent out earlier this afternoon to check on Tropical Storm Danny reported that the system is still a tropical storm, albeit one that’s moving slowly toward the north at 6 mph.

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Fl., believe the storm could strengthened slightly later tonight and into tomorrow. The reconnaissance planes found Danny had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph with some stronger gusts. At this time, it looks like the storm remains on a path heading north, moving offshore passed the Outer Banks of the North Carolina and continuing north passed New England.

The tropical storm watch — meaning tropical storm conditions could occur within the next 24 hours — remains in effect for the North Carolina coast from Cape Lookout north to Duck. However, a tropical storm warning might be needed in the area later tonight.

The 5 p.m. advisory says Danny could become a so-called extratropical storm by Saturday night. Such storms are low pressure weather systems that move beyond the warm tropical waters where they originated. Once out of the tropics, these storms can lose some of their counter-clockwise spinning action and spread out to become huge storms, ranging a few hundred to more than a thousand miles wide.

Boaters and swimmers should remain cautious because Danny can create dangerous surf and sea conditions.

Danny isn’t moving much; hurricane hunter plane checking on the storm

Tropical Storm Danny appears to be taking a break. The storm hasn’t advanced much in the past few hours. Hurricane hunter plane from the Air Force Reserve are out to check what’s happening with the storm.

In its 2 p.m. advisory, the National Hurricane Center in Miami says it still expects Danny to resume its north-northwest course at about 10 mph later today.

Danny is currently located 355 miles south of Cape Hatteras, N.C., and 830 miles south-southwest of Nantucket, Mass.

The tropical storm watch remains in effect for the North Carolina coast from Cape Lookout north to Duck.

Forecasters at NHC are still monitoring a large low pressure area about 900 miles west-southwest of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands. It continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. It could developed into a more organized system over the next two days because of favorable conditions.

TS Danny expected to come near NC’s Outer Banks overnight

Tropical Storm Danny continues moving west, but forecasters expect the system to turn north-northwest and pick up its forward speed slightly later today and tonight. They expect the storm’s center to pass near North Carolina’s Outer Banks, then onto the southeastern coast of New England late Saturday and come near the Canadian Maritimes early Sunday.

For now, the only tropical storm watch in effect is for the coast of North Carolina, from Cape Lookout northward to Duck.

Danny remains disorganized, with maximum wind speed of 40 mph. Tropical storm force winds extend out up to 175 miles.

The storm will create dangerous surf and rip current conditions. Local officials are warning residents to use extreme care when near the water this weekend. Last week Hurricane Bill, though it never made landfall, claimed the lives of two people — a swimmer in Florida and a young girl in Maine that was swept away by a large wave.

The National Hurricane Center will issue an intermediate advisory on Danny at 2 p.m.

Weakened Tropical Storm Danny’s greatest threats are rip currents and strong surf

As of 8:00 a.m. EDT, Tropical Storm Danny remained a weak tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. The greatest threat to the U.S. coastline from Danny will be dangerous rip currents and strong surf. Beach erosion may also be a problem from Danny. Danny’s center is expected to pass off shore of the outer banks of North Carolina early Saturday.

The National Hurricane Center is also monitoring an area of disturbed weather that is approximately 850 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. The NHC is giving this a medium chance of development (30% to 50%) into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours. Should this area become a hurricane it would be named Hurricane Erika. Several computer models have this system developing into a hurricane in three to four days. The system is more than 3,000 miles away from the United States and computer models have a high error rate at this stage of a system.

Tropical Storm Danny now barely a tropical storm

As of 5:00 a.m. EDT the National Hurricane Center is reporting that an Air Force reconnaissance plane has found that Tropical Storm Danny is barely a tropical storm. Maximum sustained winds are now 40 mph. While Danny has weakened, it is possible that it may regain some strength. A tropical storm watch remains in place for areas along the North Carolina coast from Cape Lookout northward to Duck. The NHC has stated that tropical storm conditions may reach these areas within 24 hours.

NHC is also advising that while Danny is weakening, it is still expected to produce dangerous and life threatening surf conditions and rip currents along the U.S. East coast during the next day or two. Two deaths were attributed to the dangerous surf conditions and rip currents from Hurricane Bill last week, and caution is advised. More information on rip currents is available from the NHC at http://www.ripcurrents.noaa.gov/.

NOAA Rip Currents